The battle for control of Congress is coming into focus as votes are counted in competitive races across the nation.
Republicans flipped Democratic-held House seats in Florida, Georgia, and Virginia. But several Democratic incumbents, including two House members in Virginia, have won competitive races, and others were leading – a sign that Republicans have an edge but not the wave they hoped for nationwide.
The battle for control of the Senate remains tight, with both parties holding onto competitive seats: Democrats in New Hampshire and Colorado; Republicans in North Carolina and Ohio.
In Florida, though, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis romped – flipping heavily Latino counties that had historically been Democratic strongholds on the way to a reelection victory that could serve as a launching pad for a 2024 presidential bid.
Here are seven early takeaways as votes are being counted in key races:
Democrats go a long way to protecting their Senate majority
Republicans were not shy about the importance of Pennsylvania’s Senate race: “This is a must-win race. We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority,” said Steven Law, president of the preeminent Republican Senate super PAC.
Early on Wednesday morning, projected that Democrat John Fetterman would be the next senator from Pennsylvania, defeating Republican Mehmet Oz in the most expensive and high-stakes Senate campaign in the country.
Fetterman’s win was a thunderclap for Democrats. While the race long represented the best chance for the party to pick up a Senate seat in 2022, Fetterman’s near-fatal stroke in May – and the lengthy recovery he endured in public – injected uncertainty into the race. But on Wednesday morning, the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor gave Democrats the pick-up they needed to have a better chance to hold the United States Senate next year.
“Fetterman’s win makes it next to impossible for the GOP to get a majority. Pennsylvania was the firewall,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic operative based in Western Pennsylvania.
Although a number of key Senate races remain uncalled, including contests in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, earlier on Tuesday, projected one Democratic incumbent: Sen. Maggie Hassan, a first-term Democrat who faced Republican retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc won her race.
A Hassan loss would have effectively ended Democrats’ hopes of retaining their majority. The party is still defending seats in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and attempting to make up for any loss in the battle for a Republican-held seat in Wisconsin – so it will take time to settle Senate control.
Democrats hold their own in the suburbs
In 2018, the suburbs delivered Democrats the House majority. In 2020, they vaulted Joe Biden to the presidency.
And in 2022, suburbs across the country went a long way in helping Democrats avoid a significant red wave.
Republicans may still win the House, but if the 2022 election was going to be a red wave, it was likely to come through suburban victories that have not materialized yet.
In a district made up of the Kansas City suburbs, projected Democrat Sharice Davids would win reelection. In Ohio, projected two suburban wins: Democrat Greg Landsman defeated Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in a district that included Cincinnati and some of the surrounding suburbs and Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in a district that includes areas around Cleveland and all of Akron. In Illinois, projected that Democratic incumbent Lauren Underwood would win reelection against Republican Scott Gryder in the Chicago suburbs. And in Virginia, projected Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger would win reelection, largely because of the votes she picked up from the suburbs of Washington, DC.
Republicans did score some suburban victories – projected Brandon Ogles the winner in a district around Nashville, Tom Kean Jr. winning in a suburban New Jersey district, and Rich McCormick the victor in a district that included Atlanta’s northern suburbs – but it was their defeats that spoke volumes about the size of the GOP wave.
Virginia’s split decision offers early signals
Three Democratic-controlled House races in Virginia were widely viewed as an early warning signal of the night’s results. With all House districts in the commonwealth projected by, the results hint at a night where Democrats could lose the House – but would not face a 2014-style wave.
Democrats held seats in two Virginia districts Biden won in 2020.
projected that Democratic Jennifer Wexton won her reelection bid in Virginia’s 10th District. Republicans were hoping Wexton could fall on Tuesday if the night was particularly bad for Democrats.
In an even more competitive race, projected Spanberger also won reelection in Virginia’s 7th District. Spanberger was widely seen as a vulnerable incumbent, especially after Republican Glenn Youngkin carried the district in his successful gubernatorial campaign in 2021.
